中国外汇储备损失考
分两部分：官方直管部分和企业经营管理部分
一、官方直管部分
Preliminary Report on the survey of Foreign Portfolio Holdings of U.S. Securities at End-June 2008 - U.S. Department of the Treasury (Last Updated: 2/27/2009) - Consulate General of the United States Hong Kong and Macau
Current Issues
U.S. Relations With the People's Republic of China (2009)
PRELIMINARY REPORT ON FOREIGN HOLDINGS OF U.S. SECURITIES AT
END-JUNE 2008
Preliminary data from the latest annual survey of foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities are now available. The survey measured foreign holdings as of June 30, 2008, to be $10,324 billion, with $2,969 billion held in U.S. equities, $6,494 billion in U.S.long-term debt securities (securities with an original term-to-maturity in excess of one year), and $861 billion in U.S. short-term debt securities. The previous survey for June 30, 2007, found $9,772 billion in foreign holdings of all U.S. securities, with $3,130 billion held in U.S. equities, $6,007 billion in U.S. long-term debt securities, and $635 billion in U.S. short-term debt securities. A detailed survey report, which will include final data as well as additional data detail, is expected to be available at end-April 2009. The survey was a joint effort of the
Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Three data tables are presented below. Each table presents holdings by country of foreign holder. The first table shows foreign holdings of U.S. securities split into holdings of equities, long-term debt, and short-term debt. The second table divides holdings of long-term debt securities by type of issuer as follows: U.S. Treasury, U.S. government agency asset-backed, U.S. government agency non-asset-backed, U.S. corporate and other asset-backed, and U.S. corporate and other non-asset-backed. The third table shows separately foreign holdings of short-term U.S. Treasury, U.S. government agencies, and corporate (and other) debt securities.
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The Press Release is dated February 27, 2009.
Last Updated: February 27, 2009
[ ...Intervening Text... ]
Table 1 (preliminary data, Feb. 27, 2009)
Foreign holdings of U.S. securities by country as of June 30, 2008($ Millions)
Country: China (Mainland)中国大陆
Total LT+ST: 长短期合计1,205,080
Equity: 股票99,548
Total LT Debt: 长期债1,075,250
Total ST Debt: 短期债30,283
Table 2 (preliminary data, Feb. 27, 2009)
Foreign holdings of long-term debt securities by country as of June
30, 2008($ Millions)
Country: China
Total LT Debt：: 1,075,250
Treasury: 521,912
Agency ABS: 368,721
Agency other: 158,332
Corporate ABS: 6,955
Corporate other: 19,330
Table 3 (preliminary data, Feb. 27, 2009)
Foreign holdings of short-term debt securities by country as of June
30, 2008($ Millions)
Country: China
Total: 30,283
Treasury: 13,130
Agency: 16,699
Corporate: 454
看来到Feb. 27, 2009为止，从中国大陆买进的国债为5350亿、公司债约为5000亿、股票100亿，共计12，050亿；另外，中国政府还从香港伦敦买进美国的有价证券，依属地原则分别记录在香港和英国名下。
美国对外关系理事会的专家Brad Setser 认为截至2008 年底，中国持有的美国国债规模将近9,000 亿美元，持有的机构债规模在5,500 亿美元至6,000 亿美元之间，持有的企业债为1,500 亿美元，股票为400 亿美元，加上400 亿美元的短期存款，中国持有美元资产规模达1.705 万亿美元，约占官方外汇储备的88%。
机构债规模在5,500 亿美元至6,000 亿美元之间，持有的企业债为1,500 亿美元，股票为400 亿美元，合计为７４００亿至８０００亿之间，机构债中，中国持有３９５０亿美元＂两房＂长债，依刘梦熊的意见，这笔帐会烂掉，但王歧山在最近说那是3976亿美元收得回,美国政府财政担保着，这样我们就踏实了。实际上美国政府没有担保，最后要看两房最后是破产还是重整时的债务计划，估计收回２成而已。这和广东省国际信托投资公司破产案基本相同，那次王歧山让保尔森代表他的客户拿回了不足两成的投资。这次他要耍回来。企业债多为金融企业债，多数是没了。股票一般就剩下２－３成吧。总之在这里看到中国政府直接管理的钱丢掉了约６４００亿美元。
二、企业经营管理部分
估计在200亿上下
有80多家A股或港股公司拥有各种外汇资产总额，折合人民币超过了2400亿人民币。其中，54家上市公司还进行了总额上百亿的外汇衍生品投资，另外有10家以上上市公司的衍生品投资额超过了亿元
又分金融企业和非金融企业两部分，资料更分散，仅有曝光的丑闻可依。
１、航空公司中国国航１０亿美元， 东方航空５亿美元
２、电力公司
３、石油公司
４、金属公司
５、金融企业：中国平安21.5亿欧元合２６亿美元 招商银行购永隆银行损失不详
６、其它 中信泰富15亿美元 中国中铁１亿美元
结论：中国的外汇储备主要是官方外汇储备，丢掉的也主要是官方管理的那些，大约有6600亿美元，再有9000亿在美国国债上，还有4000亿的柜台储备，可以满足四个月的国际贸易项下的支付。但就经不起可能出现的资本逃亡风潮。在2万亿的外汇储备中，外人在大陆的资本约有2万亿。如果走一半，就会迫使中国卖光美国国债还不够。麻烦！
